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I'd like to take a quick poll. Please leave a comment with your answers to these questions:
1. Who is your first choice of McCain, Clinton and Obama?
2. If it's Obama vs McCain, who will you vote for?
3. If it's Clinton vs McCain, who will you vote for?
Feel free to elaborate, but try to also give a simple answer to those three questions. If your answer is "I won't bother to vote," then say so.
My hypothesis is that Obama can get almost all of Clinton's supporters if he gets the nomination, but Clinton will get a much smaller percentage of Obama supporters if she somehow wins the nomination. My answers are
3. Clinton, but with much less enthusiasm
I want Barack Obama to be the next President of this country. But Hillary Clinton will be VASTLY superior as a president to John McCain.
Clinton, with much chagrin. Living in California, I’d consider voting for a third party.
“My hypothesis is that Obama can get almost all of Clinton’s supporters if he gets the nomination, but Clinton will get a much smaller percentage of Obama supporters if she somehow wins the nomination.”
I think you’re absolutely right. In the delegate discussion right now I’ve heard people say Clinton deserves the nomination because she won in the big states (California and New York). But in the general election those states will certainly go to the Democratic nominee, regardless of who he/she is. Obama does better in the midwestern states where it may be harder for a Democrat to win.
And I’ve heard many Republicans I know say they might vote for Obama.
My juniors, few of whom will vote next year:
Obama-14 Clinton-2 McCain-18
28% of Clinton supporters would go McCain if Obama is the nominee. 19% of Obama supporters would go McCain if Clinton is the nominee.
I think that Gallup poll is correct. I don’t think we realize the scope of how DEEP this love for the Clinton family goes. She has all but lost the nomination, and yet they fight on. Say what you will about Hilary, but the supporters are there, and they are willing to die for her.
If Hilary loses, a substantial number of them will stay at home, which in essence is a vote for McCain (Especially in crucial states like Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania). A vote for McCain from them would be, in actuality, a double vote for McCain.
I still think the Dems will win, because of the tarnished Republican brand, but it won’t be a landslide (like it probably should be)
McCain - just because he’s got more conservative views that I agree with.
McCain. Hillary has no chance against Obama or McCain.
I like Obama but McCain is the guy for the Job.
3. Abstain, they both lie ( though I’m Australian )
I really wonder if the USA can bring itself to elect Obama, given it’s track record, however he has the sheer intelligence to make McCain look stupid in a Presidential campaign.
It’s time the Republicans spent 8 or more years out of office and make use of that time by taking a long hard look at themselves and what they have let happen at home and abroad.
Good luck with your election :)